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Analyzing PSG vs. Bayern matchup

The user quoted a statement about PSG's struggles in recent matches against Bayern, mentioning they’ve taken 40 shots without scoring. It seems like they’re looking for a tactical analysis and predictions for an upcoming game. I need to focus on things like tactics, key matchups, statistics for expected goals (xG), and set pieces. I should provide insights without suggesting any current knowledge beyond my last cutoff in October 2024.Reviewing PSG’s recent challenges

Okay, I need to sort through the details of PSG’s recent encounters with Bayern. In 2021, PSG won on away goals, but in 2023, Bayern beat PSG in both matches, which might relate to the stat about 40 shots without a goal. This likely covers their last two knockout ties and any group matches. I should analyze why PSG struggles, looking at shot selection, blocked attempts, and defensive tactics from Bayern, especially considering recent coaching changes.Assessing PSG's potential without Mbappe

Okay, considering that Mbappe left PSG for Real Madrid in 2024, I need to think about who might score against Bayern, like Dembele, Kolo Muani, Goncalo Ramos, Asensio, or Lee Kang-in. The main focus here is analysis rather than lineups. I should point out key strategies: exploiting set-piece weaknesses, making half-space runs against Bayern's high line, and using transition attacks. I want to avoid repetitive crossing, instead, look for opportunities behind defenders like Alphonso Davies and Kimmich. I should also consider pressing strategies targeting Bayern’s build-up.Formulating PSG's tactical approach

Bayern often plays a high line, exposing them to runs in the channels, especially with a high-risk build-up like Kompany’s style. For PSG, I can suggest micro-tactics: using Dembele in 1v1 situations for cutbacks, positioning Ramos as a central forward, and encouraging late runs from Vitinha or Zaïre-Emery. Since Mbappe is gone, maybe Barcola can take the left side and Dembele can stay right. To boost expected goals (xG), focus on shots within 12 meters, utilize smart runs, and create effective set-piece strategies.Evaluating PSG's scoring chances

If we take λ=1.2, the chance of PSG failing to score is about 30%, and with λ=1.6, it drops to 20%. If PSG can create an xG of 1.5, they would have roughly a 22% chance of not scoring. To have an 80% chance, I found λ=1.609 is needed. I need to give a concise analysis in bullet points: reasons for failure, necessary changes, potential tactical adjustments, and key players to watch. I’ll provide actionable micro-tactics and a predicted scoreline, suggesting they might score if they can create 1.6+ xG against Bayern's high line.